June has been the month the market stopped believing in a summer rate cut. A run of hot data — jobs, then services, then a firm CPI — pushed the US 10-year back toward 4.55%, and everything priced off that rate repriced lower with it. Risk assets fell together, the dollar firmed, and even gold gave ground. The model has moved fully defensive.
The Board — June So Far
| Asset | Level | Month | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar (DXY) | 106.4 | +2.8% | ▲ |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.55% | +0.34 | ▲ |
| FTSE 100 | 10,373 | −0.9% | ◆ |
| S&P 500 | 5,418 | −4.2% | ▼ |
| Gold (XAU) | $4,351 | −3.6% | ▼ |
| Bitcoin | $63,704 | −17.1% | ▼ |
| Ethereum | $1,712 | −23.8% | ▼ |
One column tells the story: the dollar was the only asset working, and it was working because real yields rose. The FTSE was the most resilient of the equity benchmarks; the further out the risk curve you went, the worse it got. Gold falling alongside risk is the tell that this was a real-yield move, not a growth scare.
Three Forces That Defined June
- The cut got priced out — hot jobs, firm services and a sticky CPI took summer easing off the table.
- Real yields did the damage — with the 10Y near 4.5%, every long-duration asset, from growth stocks to crypto, felt the gravity.
- Correlations went to one — crypto, equities and gold fell together; only the dollar rose. In months like that, position size is the only real hedge.
What We're Watching Into July
- The July CPI print — the hinge for whether the cut comes back on. A soft number changes everything.
- FTSE relative strength — can it hold its leadership as the defensive name?
- Bitcoin's 19-month low — a level reclaim, not a wick, is what matters. We want a weekly close back above it, not an intraday poke.
The discipline this month was simply to respect the regime — trade the model, size down, and let the data turn before you do. The model stays defensive into July.