Past Edition — Published 4 May 2026. All prices, signals, and calendar dates reflect information available at time of publication. Market conditions change rapidly — verify all figures independently before making any decisions. This content is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read our full disclaimer →
This Week in One Sentence
The US dollar broke down through 99 and held below it for a second week — a significant macro development, and one that the Murray Pro signal model is treating as a green light across its signal matrix.
The DXY Break: Why It Matters
The Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week at 98.9. Two consecutive weekly closes below 99 constitute a confirmed break — the first time since 2021 the dollar has shown a sustained bear trend.
This matters across every asset class the model tracks:
For Bitcoin: Dollar weakness has historically preceded Bitcoin strength by 4–8 weeks. The correlation is not perfect, but the direction has been consistent across prior cycles. BTC broke above a key resistance level this week on elevated weekly volume.
For Gold: Gold is priced in dollars. A weaker dollar reduces the effective cost for non-USD buyers, lifting structural demand. Gold reached new all-time highs this week. The breakout above prior resistance is confirmed on the model.
For Commodities: Copper surged to multi-year highs — a useful economic bellwether. Sustained strength at this level typically signals genuine global demand rather than speculative positioning.
For UK investors specifically: A weaker dollar lifts sterling purchasing power and reduces the currency drag on dollar-denominated assets. It also tends to benefit the FTSE 100, where a significant proportion of earnings are dollar-denominated.
Signal Matrix — Week of 4 May 2026
Model signals based on the Murray Pro 6-indicator scoring system. Score ≥ 4/6 = actionable. All figures as at Sunday 3 May 2026.
| Asset | Model Signal | Score | Change | Invalidation | |-------|-------------|-------|--------|-------------| | 🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) | 🚀 STRONG IN | 5.8/6 | ▲ | Weekly close below $3,100 | | ₿ Bitcoin | 🚀 STRONG IN | 5.2/6 | ▲ Upgraded | Weekly close below 200DMA | | ⬡ Ethereum | ✅ IN | 4.1/6 | ▲ | Break below $1,550 | | ◎ Solana | ✅ IN | 4.3/6 | → | Break below $128 | | 🪙 Silver | ✅ IN | 4.0/6 | ▲ | Break below $29 | | ⚙️ HYPE | ✅ IN | 4.2/6 | ▲ | DEX OI collapse | | 🔗 Chainlink | 👀 WATCH | 3.7/6 | → | — | | 📊 S&P 500 | 👀 WATCH | 3.8/6 | ▲ from HOLD | Weekly close below 200DMA | | 🛢️ WTI Oil | 〰️ HOLD | 3.2/6 | → | — | | 💵 DXY | 🛑 AVOID | 1.8/6 | → | Reclaim above 100.5 |
Model signals are educational indicators only. They do not constitute personal investment recommendations. Your own circumstances, risk tolerance, and financial objectives must be assessed independently.
Bitcoin: Model Upgraded to STRONG IN
Bitcoin has been on an IN signal since late March. The model is upgrading it to STRONG IN this week based on the following cumulative factors:
- Price action: BTC broke a key weekly resistance level on elevated volume. The 200-day moving average held as support throughout April's volatility.
- On-chain: MVRV ratio is at 2.1. Historically, cycle tops have occurred around 3.0–3.5. The on-chain picture does not yet show overheating.
- ETF flows: Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows returned to positive territory last week after a flat period. Institutional positioning is not showing distribution signals.
- Macro alignment: DXY breakdown, gold at all-time highs, and copper strength all confirm a risk-on, dollar-bearish environment. This has historically been constructive for Bitcoin.
Model stance for existing positions: The model suggests maintaining positions with a trailing stop set at the 200DMA on a weekly close basis. This is model guidance only — your own stop placement must reflect your personal risk tolerance and financial situation.
Model entry scenario: The model's preferred entry zone is strength-confirmed levels above 200DMA support. Do not treat model scenarios as personal recommendations. Consult an independent financial adviser.
Model technical parameter: Based on the breakout structure at time of publication, the model's measured-move calculation projects an upside zone above $100,000. Invalidation signal: a weekly close below $84,000 would indicate the breakout structure has failed. These are illustrative model parameters — not price predictions or targets for your own investment. Cryptoasset prices can move significantly in either direction, and past technical patterns are not a reliable guide to future price action.
Gold: Model Stance — STRONG IN
Gold reached a new all-time high this week. The structural drivers the model tracks have not changed — they have strengthened:
- Central bank buying: Poland, China, and India have been net buyers for 18+ consecutive months (World Gold Council data). The pace is increasing.
- De-dollarisation: Reserve managers are diversifying away from US Treasuries. Gold is a primary beneficiary in this environment.
- DXY weakness: As noted above — gold is structurally the anti-dollar trade.
- Rate outlook: Markets are pricing 2–3 Fed cuts in 2026. When cuts materialise, real yields fall. Lower real yields have historically been supportive for gold.
Model pullback level to watch: $3,100 — the prior breakout zone. On any sustained move toward this level, the model would treat it as potential accumulation territory rather than a warning signal, provided structural factors remain intact.
Model upside scenario: The model's measured-move projection based on the breakout structure is $3,600. This is a technical projection only — not a forecast or recommendation.
Copper: The Industrial Signal
Copper is at multi-year highs. Three compounding structural drivers:
- AI infrastructure: Data centres are copper-intensive. The AI capex cycle is in early stages. Major technology companies have committed substantial data centre spending for 2026.
- EV and renewables: Solar panels, wind turbines, and EV motors require 3–5× more copper than fossil fuel equivalents. This is a multi-decade structural demand story.
- Supply constraint: The average copper mine takes 16 years to develop. No significant new primary supply is expected before 2030.
FCX (Freeport-McMoRan, US) and GLEN (Glencore, UK) are two of the largest pure-play copper producers. This is factual information only, not a recommendation to buy either security.
Equities: Tariff Fears Fading
US equities recovered from the April tariff-driven dip following the 90-day tariff pause extension. Earnings season has been broadly solid across technology and financial sectors.
The model has upgraded equities from HOLD to WATCH. A full IN signal on the model requires a sustained weekly close above near-term resistance — that level has not yet been confirmed.
FTSE 100 is already on an IN signal. UK equities are benefiting from:
- Relatively lower valuations vs US
- Dollar weakness lifting GBP-translated earnings
- UK-US trade deal progress
- Strong sector-specific performance in pharma and energy
The above is market observation, not a recommendation to buy or sell equities.
What the Model Is Watching This Week
Fed speakers (Wednesday): Any shift in language on rate cuts will move all markets simultaneously. A more dovish tone would be supportive for the dollar-decline thesis and hard assets. A hawkish surprise would likely cause a short-term pullback.
US CPI (Tuesday 12 May): April 2026 CPI release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. If inflation continues to moderate, the rate cut case strengthens. A hot print would be disruptive to risk assets.
BTC key level: A sustained weekly close above $100,000 would prompt a reassessment of model position sizing parameters. That level carries significant psychological weight and has historically attracted retail capital flows.
DXY: Two weeks below 99 is significant but a confirmed multi-month bear trend requires more evidence. Monitoring weekly.
Week-Ahead Calendar
All dates verified against official source schedules as at publication. Confirm independently before acting on calendar events.
| Date | Event | Source | Asset Impact | |------|-------|--------|-------------| | Mon 4 May | US markets open — NFP digest | — | All | | Wed 6 May | Fed speakers (Waller, Jefferson) | Fed.gov | DXY, BTC, Gold | | Thu 7 May | BoE Monetary Policy Decision | bankofengland.co.uk | GBP, Gilts | | Tue 12 May | US CPI — April 2026 | bls.gov | All | | Fri 8 May | UK-US Trade Deal update (expected) | — | FTSE, GBP |
Model Portfolio — Indicative Allocations
These are the current target allocations for the Murray Money Pro educational model portfolio. They are illustrative only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Your own asset allocation must be determined by your personal circumstances, risk tolerance, investment objectives, and ideally in consultation with a regulated financial adviser.
| Asset Class | Model Target | Rationale | |-------------|-------------|-----------| | Crypto (BTC + ETH + SOL) | 55% | Bull market confirmed on model | | Gold | 20% | STRONG IN — anti-dollar hedge | | Equities | 10% | FTSE 100 + AI semiconductors | | Alternatives (HYPE, Silver) | 10% | Tactical model additions | | Cash / T-Bills | 5% | Reserve for dip opportunities |
Final Thought
The dollar breaking down is a meaningful macro development, not a minor technical event. Dollar dominance defined 2022–2024 as the Fed hiked rates. The model sees this as an environment that has historically been constructive for hard assets — gold, Bitcoin, commodities.
The signal matrix reflects that. Stay disciplined to your plan, review your stops, and see you next Monday.
— Murray Money Pro
⚠️ Risk Warning: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, a personal recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptoasset. Cryptoassets and financial markets are highly volatile — you could lose some or all of your capital. Past performance and model signals are not a guarantee of future results. The Murray Money Pro signal model is an educational tool only. Always seek independent regulated financial advice before making investment decisions. Murray Money Pro is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
All market data as at Sunday 3 May 2026, 23:59 BST. Sources: CoinGecko, TradingView, World Gold Council, BLS. Verify independently before acting.