Past Edition — Published 14 April 2026. All prices, signals, and calendar dates reflect information available at time of publication. Market conditions change rapidly — verify all figures independently before making any decisions. This content is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read our full disclaimer →

Good morning. It's Monday 8am. Here's everything that matters for the model this week.

All market data as at Sunday 13 April 2026, 23:59 BST. Sources: CoinGecko, TradingView, World Gold Council. Verify current prices independently before acting.

The Week in One Paragraph

Bitcoin consolidated above $83,000 through the week despite early softness on Thursday, with the 200-day MA holding as support for the third consecutive week. Gold broke through $3,200/oz for the first time — central bank buying and dollar weakness driving the structural move. Ethereum underperformed again, still searching for a catalyst while ETH/BTC sits at 14-month lows. The overall picture: the model is risk-on for hard assets, cautious on altcoins, and the macro backdrop is the most constructive it has been since Q4 2025.

📊 The Full 10-Asset Signal Matrix

Model signals based on the Murray Pro 6-indicator scoring system. Score ≥ 4/6 = actionable. Model signals are educational indicators only — not personal investment recommendations.

Our Command Centre scored 4.2/6 average this week — above the model entry threshold of 4.0.

| Asset | Model Signal | Score | Model Action Guidance | |---|---|---|---| | Bitcoin (BTC) | ✅ IN | 5.1/6 | Model: Hold / potential add on dips to $80k | | Ethereum (ETH) | 〰️ HOLD | 3.8/6 | Model: No new entry signals | | Solana (SOL) | ✅ IN | 4.4/6 | Model: Hold existing positions | | Gold (XAU) | ✅ IN | 5.6/6 | Strongest signal in the matrix | | S&P 500 | 〰️ HOLD | 3.9/6 | Model: Await clearer direction | | Hyperliquid (HYPE) | 〰️ HOLD | 3.5/6 | Model: Watch $14 support | | BNB | 〰️ HOLD | 3.7/6 | Model: Holding range, no catalyst | | Avalanche (AVAX) | ✅ IN | 4.2/6 | Model: Subnet activity picking up | | Chainlink (LINK) | 〰️ HOLD | 3.6/6 | Model: RWA narrative building slowly | | USD / Cash | ❌ RISK-OFF | 1.8/6 | Model: Underweight vs hard assets |

Command Centre scores 6 indicators: Trend, Momentum, Volume, On-Chain, Macro, and Sentiment. Score ≥ 4 = model actionable. Not a personal recommendation.

₿ Bitcoin Deep Dive

Price: $83,240 · 7-day: +2.1% · 30-day: +8.4%
(Source: CoinGecko, 13 Apr 2026 23:59 BST)

The weekly close above the 200DMA at $81,400 is the key development. Three consecutive weekly closes above this level have historically preceded continuation moves in prior cycles — though past patterns are not a reliable guide to future performance.

Key levels the model is monitoring:

  • Support: $80,000 (psychological + 200DMA cluster) · $76,400 (March swing low)
  • Resistance: $88,500 (February high) · $92,000 (next major level)

Model watch: The weekly MACD is curling positive for the first time since January. If BTC prints a weekly close above $88,500, the model would consider upgrading to Strong IN and reviewing position sizing parameters.

🥇 Gold — Strongest Model Signal This Week

Gold is the strongest signal in the matrix at 5.6/6. Central banks added 87 tonnes in March (World Gold Council data), the 18th consecutive month of net central bank buying. The DXY at 99.84 is providing a significant structural tailwind.

The $3,200 break is technically significant — clearing a 3-month consolidation. The model's measured-move target is $3,350 based on the breakout structure. The model maintains Gold as a core position in the educational portfolio.

Gold figures sourced from TradingView/OANDA. Central bank data from World Gold Council March 2026 report.

📉 Macro in 3 Lines

  • Fed: Neutral stance maintained. Markets now pricing one cut for Q4 2026 (down from two cuts at year-start). (Source: CME FedWatch)
  • Dollar (DXY): 99.84 — a critical level. A weekly close below 99.50 would be dollar-bearish and constructive for the model's hard-asset positions.
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 4.28%. Stable. No immediate pressure on risk assets from the bond market. (Source: US Treasury)

🔗 On-Chain in 3 Lines

  • MVRV Ratio: 1.82 — fair value zone. No cycle-top signal. (Source: Glassnode)
  • ETF Flows: +$840M net inflow across US Bitcoin ETFs last week. (Source: Bloomberg ETF data)
  • Long-Term Holders: STH to LTH ratio declining — coins maturing, fewer short-term speculators. (Source: Glassnode)

⚖️ Model Portfolio Sizing — Illustrative Guidance

These are illustrative model parameters only. They are not personal recommendations. Your own position sizing must be determined by your personal circumstances, risk tolerance, and financial objectives — ideally in consultation with a regulated financial adviser.

  • BTC at $80,000–$83,000: Model base sizing (10–15% of crypto allocation per entry)
  • Gold: Model: maintain existing positions. If not yet positioned, consider allocation in the context of your overall portfolio
  • ETH: Model: no new entry signals until Command Centre ≥ 4.0
  • Altcoins (SOL, AVAX, LINK): Model: half-base sizing — higher volatility assets carry higher position risk

📅 Week Ahead — Key Dates

Dates verified against official source schedules as at publication. Confirm independently before acting.

| Date | Event | Source | Why It Matters | |---|---|---|---| | Tue 21 Apr | US Retail Sales (March) | census.gov | Consumer strength → risk-on signal | | Wed 16 Apr | Fed Beige Book | federalreserve.gov | Forward guidance signals | | Thu 17 Apr | ECB Rate Decision | ecb.europa.eu | EUR/USD move affects DXY | | Fri 18 Apr | Good Friday | — | UK markets closed |

Watch the DXY reaction to the retail data. A weak print could be constructive for the model's hard-asset thesis.

🎯 The One Thing

If you review nothing else this week: don't sell your gold positions without a clear model exit signal. At 5.6/6 on the Command Centre with the macro backdrop aligned, the model carries its highest conviction score on gold right now. The $3,200 technical break has historically led to follow-through over the following 4–8 weeks — though past patterns are not a guide to future results.

💬 From Keith

Another week, another record for gold. The frustrating thing about these markets is that the obvious structural trade (hard assets in a dollar-weakening environment) often gets ignored because it feels too simple.

The model's message this week is clear: it favours hard assets over cash in this environment. That is a model stance based on the signal matrix — it is not personal investment advice and your own situation will differ. Please always make decisions based on your own circumstances and consider seeking independent financial advice.

See you next Monday.

Keith Murray — Murray Money Pro

⚠️ Risk Warning: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, a personal recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Cryptoassets and financial markets are highly volatile — you could lose some or all of your capital. Past performance and model signals are not a guarantee of future results. Always seek independent regulated financial advice before making investment decisions. Murray Money Pro is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Full disclaimer →