Every 1st of the month we publish a full institutional deep-dive. Here's what's inside the April edition:
Cycle position: We're in the late-belief phase — prices rising, narratives strong, but no euphoria yet. Historically the most rewarding phase to be positioned in — if you stay disciplined.
Key data points from this month's research:
- MVRV Z-Score: 1.2 — fair value, no overheating signal
- LTH Supply: 74.1% — long-term holders not selling
- ETF Flows (30D): +$3.2B — institutional accumulation
- Exchange Reserves: -4.2% — supply leaving, structurally bullish
- Fear & Greed: 52 (Neutral) — nowhere near euphoria
Model portfolio entering April: 62% deployed. 38% cash reserved for correction entries.
Risk scenarios covered in the full edition:
- Bull case (40%): Fed cuts Q3, BTC tests £105-120k
- Base case (45%): Choppy summer range, bull intact
- Bear case (15%): Macro shock, stop-loss exits protect capital
The complete 14-minute Monthly Edition — full on-chain tables, narrative tracking, upcoming catalysts, and our positioning rationale — goes to subscribers on the 1st of every month.
It's free to subscribe.