Reading the Conviction Score (0–6)
The Conviction Score is the most important number in the Murray Money Pro system. Understanding it fully is the difference between trading with edge and gambling with labels.
What It Measures
The score counts how many of six independent confirmation signals agree that conditions are right for a trade right now. Each signal comes from a different analytical domain — so they can't cancel each other out or reinforce a single bias.
The six components (Trend tier):
| # | Signal | What it measures | Weight | |---|--------|-----------------|--------| | 1 | 8/8 EMA Ribbon | All short-to-long EMAs stacked bullish | +1 | | 2 | Supertrend | Price above dynamic volatility band | +1 | | 3 | Weekly EMA 21 | Higher timeframe trend alignment | +1 | | 4 | RSI 50–75 | Healthy upward momentum, not overbought | +1 | | 5 | Volume > 1.2× MA | Institutional participation confirmed | +1 | | 6 | ADX > 20 | Market is trending, not ranging | +1 |
Every component is binary: either it qualifies (+1) or it doesn't (+0). There's no partial credit and no weighting — each dimension of the market gets exactly one vote.
What Each Score Means
6/6 — Maximum Conviction
All six conditions are aligned. The trend, momentum, volume, and higher timeframe are all pointing the same direction. Historically the rarest and highest-performing setup. Position size: 20% (2× base).
What to do: Execute at the open of the next bar. Set stop at the level shown. No hesitation.
5/6 — High Conviction
Five of six conditions aligned. One component is missing — usually volume (choppy day) or ADX (market just starting to trend). Strong setup. Position size: 15% (1.5× base).
What to do: Execute. The one missing component is acceptable at this threshold.
4/6 — Minimum Threshold
Four conditions aligned. This is the floor. The trade has a positive mathematical edge, but it's not exceptional. Position size: 10% (base only).
What to do: Execute with base size. Do not scale up.
3/6 — Below Threshold
Three conditions aligned. No label appears on the chart at this score. This is the most common score in ranging markets and the most common cause of losing trades when overridden.
What to do: Nothing. Wait.
2/6 or lower — No Edge
The market is not set up for a trade. Two or fewer signals agree. No label. No trade.
What to do: Close the chart. Do something else.
Why 4/6 Is The Minimum
At a score of 3/6, only half the confirmation signals agree. In a fair coin flip, you'd expect 3/6 by pure chance. A 3/6 trade has no statistical edge over random entry.
The backtest data confirms this: the system's 5.5× profit factor is measured on trades with score ≥ 4. Below 4, the profit factor drops significantly. The minimum score isn't a conservative preference — it's where the mathematical edge begins.
The most common mistake: overriding the threshold because "the chart looks good." The chart always looks good when you're looking for a reason to trade. The score removes that bias.
Interpreting the Panel
The info table in the top-right corner of your chart (Tier 1) shows:
- TREND: BULL / BEAR / FLAT — the current ribbon state
- SUPERTREND: current Supertrend direction
- REGIME: TRENDING / MIXED / RANGING — ADX-based market structure
- SCORE: current active score / 6
- ADX / VOL: raw ADX value and volatility regime
- POS SIZE: recommended position size for current volatility
- STOP / TRAIL: current stop price and whether ATR trail is active
The score displayed in the panel is the score of the active direction — if you're in a long, it shows the buy score; if flat, it shows whichever score is higher.
The Score and Volatility
A high score in a high-volatility environment is handled differently from the same score in normal conditions. The Trend indicator automatically detects:
- High vol (ATR > 1.5× 50-day ATR average): reduces position size to ½
- Normal vol: full base size
- Low vol: allows up to 1.25× base size
This means a 6/6 signal in a spike-vol environment still only gets ½ position, not 2×. The score alone doesn't determine size — it's score plus volatility regime.
Summary
| Score | Label? | Position Size | Action | |-------|--------|--------------|--------| | 6/6 | ✅ | 20% | Execute — maximum size | | 5/6 | ✅ | 15% | Execute — high confidence | | 4/6 | ✅ | 10% | Execute — base size only | | 3/6 | ❌ | — | Wait | | 2/6 | ❌ | — | Wait | | 1/6 | ❌ | — | Wait |
The label is not there to be interesting. It's there because six independent signals agree. When it appears, act on it.
Murray Money Pro · Pine Script v6 · For educational purposes. Not financial advice.